‘Next’ is a fun science fiction movie about a guy who can see just two minutes into the future. But it reminded me of the importance of looking five years into the future. Because seeing the future, changes it. As Abraham Lincoln said "The best way to predict your future is to create it."
Here’s what I see coming in the job search business:
- The strong become powerful – I was surprised not to see any high-profile bankruptcies last year. So what’s happening? Just as economic wealth has become highly concentrated over the past 30 years. Data from tax returns show that the top 1% of households received 8.9%
of all pre-tax income in 1976. In 2007, the top 1% share had more than
doubled to 23.5% — similar trends are at work online. Watch for power to concentrate in the hands of today’s heavyweight job search entrepreneurs. The competition coming from every direction won’t matter as much as the competition coming from a handful-or-so of companies. - Consolidation - acquisitions will accelerate and outpace all previous activity. Whereas acquisitions used to be mostly for the largest companies, even small job boards will be active in the future on a smaller scale.
- Risks and rewards are magnified - there will be fewer moderately successful job boards as the cost of remaining invisible rises and the rewards for succeeding rise. This will make for a very volatile and noisy marketplace with lots of outlandish marketing.
- Video arrives – if keeping a blog and running a social network separate the men from the boys today, tomorrow it will be video content. Sites without good video will feel stale.
- Small is beautiful – small job boards have always been somewhat virtual companies relying heavily on contractors. There will be a new crop of larger scale virtual companies as entrepreneurs respond to the lessons of the great recession by minimizing infrastructure and maximizing revenue per employee.
How do you thrive over the next five years in this environment?
- Spread your bets – get diversity. You don’t want to depend critically on any customer, vendor, partner, employee, traffic source or technology. If you have anything you can’t afford to lose, make changes!
- Make new friends – socialize. In a volatile market, you can’t afford to be the last one on the block to know what’s happening. There are always individuals at the forefront of every change and opportunity. Sometimes these folks are 10 years ahead of the pack. Timing is everything and the right clue at the right moment can change your business and your life.
- Put down deep roots – make value the cornerstone of your business. If everyone loves what you do for them, your unavoidable mistakes, failures and missed opportunities won’t matter as much. You’ll expand your options and opportunities.
When I look into the future and I see its shape, I act. That changes my future.
What do you see? What can you do today that will make you look like a genius five years from now? Watch this trailer and think about it:
